New Hampshire primary

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The New Hampshire primary is the opening gun of the quadrennial U.S. presidential election. Since 1952 New Hampshire has gained international attention for its presidential primaries. They are major testing grounds for candidates for the Republican and Democratic nominations. Candidates who do poorly usually have to drop out. Little known, underfunded candidates who do well suddenly become contenders, as they gain huge amounts of media attention and money. The media give New Hampshire (and Iowa) about half of all the attention paid to all states in the primary process, magnifying the state's decision power (and spurring repeated efforts by out-of-state Democrats to change the rules.)

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Significance

Since 1977, New Hampshire law has stated that its primary is to be the first in the nation. As a result, the state has had to move its primary, originally in March, earlier in the year to remain the first. For example, the election was held on February 20 in 1996, then February 1 in 2000, and January 27 in 2004 to compete with earlier and earlier primaries in other states.

Before the less-binding Iowa caucus first received national attention in the 1970s, the New Hampshire primary was the first binding indication of which presidential candidate would receive his political party's nomination. In defense of their primary, voters of New Hampshire have tended to downplay the importance of the Iowa caucus. "The people of Iowa pick corn, the people of New Hampshire pick presidents," said then-Governor John H. Sununu in 1988.

Since then, the primary has been considered an early measurement of the national attitude toward the candidates for nomination. Unlike a caucus, the primary measures the number of votes each candidate received directly, rather than through precinct delegates. The fact that the primary is based on the popular vote means that it gives less well known candidates a chance to pull ahead. Unlike most other states, New Hampshire permits independents, not just party members, to vote in a party's primary.

New Hampshire's status as the first-in-the-nation is somewhat controversial among Democrats because liberals consider the state too white and too conservative; 2000 Census data show it is 96% white versus 75% nationally. Politically however, the state does offer a wide sampling of different types of voters. Although it is a New England state, it is not as liberal as some of its neighbors, (e.g. Massachusetts). For example, according to one exit poll, of those who participated in the 2004 Democratic Primary, 4 in 10 voters were independents, and just over 50% said they considered themselves "liberal." Additionally, as of 2002, 25.6% of New Hampshire residents are registered Democrats and 36.7% are Republicans, with 37.7% of New Hampshire voters registered as "undeclared" independents. This plurality of independents is a major reason why New Hampshire is considered a swing state in general U.S. presidential elections.

Recently, media expectations for the New Hampshire primary have come to be almost as important as the results themselves; meeting or beating expectations can provide a candidate with national attention, often leading to an infusion of donations to a campaign that has spent most of its reserves. For example, in 1992, Bill Clinton, although he did not win, did surprisingly well, with his team dubbing him the "Comeback Kid"; the extra media attention helped drive him to victory in later primaries.

New Hampshire's political importance as the first in the nation primary state is hilighted in the documentary film Winning New Hampshire. The film focuses on John Kerry's comeback in 2004 and the decisive effect of the New Hampshire Primary on the Presidential selection process.

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History

New Hampshire has held a presidential primary since 1916, but it did not begin to assume its current importance until 1952, when Dwight Eisenhower demonstrated his broad voter appeal by defeating Robert A. Taft, "Mr. Republican," who had been favored for the nomination, and Estes Kefauver defeated incumbent President Harry S. Truman, leading him to abandon his campaign for a second term.

The other President to be forced from running for re-election by New Hampshire voters was Lyndon Johnson, who managed only a 49-42 percent victory over Eugene McCarthy in 1968, and consequently withdrew from the race. Before 1992 the person elected president had always carried the primary, but Bill Clinton broke the pattern in 1992, as did George W. Bush in 2000. Moreover, the winner in New Hampshire has not always gone to win his party's nomination, as demonstrated by Republicans John McCain in 2000 and Pat Buchanan in 1996.

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Future

Following the 2004 presidential election, some elements in the Democratic Party proposed new primary calendars that would end the New Hampshire's first in the nation status. The Commission on Presidential Nomination Timing and Scheduling issued a report at the end of 2005, recommending adding several caucuses to come before New Hampshire's primary. The recommendations would need to be approved by the full Democratic National Committee before they could take effect. However, New Hampshire state law requires the primary to take place seven days before any other "similar contest," which state officials have always interpreted to mean any contest other than Iowa's caucus. The Republican Party, meanwhile, has maintained its support of the current primary calendar.

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References

  • Palmer, Niall A. The New Hampshire Primary and the American Electoral Process (1997)
  • Brereton Charles. First in the Nation: New Hampshire and the Premier Presidential Primary. Portsmouth, NH: Peter E. Randall Publishers, 1987.
  • Casey Susan B. Hart and Soul: Gary Hart's New Hampshire Odyssey and Beyond. Concord, NH: NHI Press, 1986.
  • Cash Kevin. Who the Hell Is William Loeb? Manchester, NH: Amoskeag Press, 1975.
  • Scala, Dante J. Stormy Weather : The New Hampshire Primary and Presidential Politics (2003)
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Winners and runners-up

Notes: Winner is listed first. Candidates in bold went on to win their party's nomination.

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Democrats

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Republicans

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2004 Democratic results

Candidate Votes % Delegates
John Kerry 84,377 38.4 13
Howard Dean 57,761 26.3 9
Wesley Clark 27,314 12.4 0
John Edwards 26,487 12.1 0
Joseph Lieberman 18,911 8.6 0
Dennis Kucinich 3,114 1.4 0
Richard Gephardt 419 0.2 0
Al Sharpton 347 0.2 0
George W. Bush 257 0.1 0
Other 1,000 0.5 0
Total 219,787 100 22 (of 27)

Sources: Union-Leader (Manchester, NH), CNN, New Hampshire Department of State

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2004 Republican results

Candidate Votes % Delegates
George W. Bush 53,962 79.55 29
All Others 13,907 20.45  
John Kerry 3,009 4.44  
Howard Dean 1,888 2.78  
Wesley Clark 1,467 2.16  
Joseph Lieberman 941 1.39  
John Edwards 916 1.35  
Richard Boza 841 1.24  
John Buchanan 836 1.23  
John Rigazio 803 1.18  
Robert Haines 579 0.85  
Michael Callis 388 0.57  
Blake Ashby 264 0.39  
Millie Howard 239 0.35  
Tom Laughlin 154 0.23  
Bill Wyatt 153 0.23  
Scatter 1393 2.05  
Total 67,833 100 29

Sources: Concord Monitor, New Hampshire Department of State, [1], [2], [3]

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2000 Democratic results

Candidate Votes % Delegates
Al Gore 76,681 52 13
Bill Bradley 69,933 48 9
Other 1,184 0 0
Total 147,798 100 22 (of 27)

Source: CNN

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2000 Republican results

Candidate Votes % Delegates
John McCain 115,490 49 9
George W. Bush 72,262 30 6
Steve Forbes 30,197 13 2
Alan Keyes 15,196 6 0
Gary Bauer 1,656 1 0
Other 2,001 1 0
Total 236,802 100 17

Source: CNN

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Resources

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