Card counting
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In card games, card counting is the process of gaining an advantage by tracking the cards which have been played, so the player has an idea of the value of the cards remaining to be dealt. Card counters use this information to determine how well the remaining deck favors their chances of winning. Counting is most popular with blackjack, though it can be utilized in any card game where the deck has a memory. It cannot be used in games like craps or roulette, which maintain the same odds each round. For example in 7-card stud, if an opponent is showing a partial straight that cannot be finished because the missing cards have already been dealt, one would bet more aggressively than if there were a possibility of the opponent holding a straight. However, in 7-card stud this is typically not called card counting.
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In blackjack
In blackjack, the player has an advantage when the undealt deck is rich in high cards (10's and aces). The card counter takes advantage of this by making larger bets when this situation occurs. In the long run, the deck will be unfavorable to the player more often than it is favorable, but it is the amount bet under each condition that counts. The player can also use information about the deck's composition to alter strategy. For example, basic strategy calls for hitting a 16 when the dealer's upcard is a 10, but this is a very close play; one loses less by hitting than standing, but not by much. If it is known, however, that the deck is depleted of small cards such as 4s and 5s, and rich in 10s, that may alter the odds in favor of standing. Blackjack card-counters track the ratio of high cards to low cards. A deck rich in high cards favors the player primarily for two reasons. First, the dealer is more likely to bust. (The player is not as likely to bust because the player has the option to stand on totals of 12-16, while the dealer has no such luxury.) Second, the player is more likely to receive a blackjack and receive the 3:2 payout. (The dealer is also more likely to get a blackjack, but doesn't receive any extra money from the player when he does.) Many casinos are now paying only 6:5 on blackjacks, which removes the advantage from counting cards.
In addition, a card counter can play the Insurance bet if the count of faces is sufficiently high with potentially an advantage over the house; this bet is in general almost always disadvantageous.
It is difficult for most people to remember what cards have already been dealt, particularly from a multiple-deck shoe. Therefore, card counting schemes assign some sort of heuristic points score to each card in the deck(s) used and keep track of the overall score. Normally, low-value cards, such as a 2 or 3, are given a positive value, and 10s are given a negative value. The exact number assigned to the cards depends on the specific card-counting method. The card counter mentally keeps a running tally of the point values as they are dealt. A common system (the Hi-Lo Count) is to assign positive one (+1) to the 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6 cards, and negative one (-1) to the 10, J, Q, K, and A. The 7, 8, and 9 are not counted in the Hi-Lo system. Counting schemes that assign point values of –1, 0, or +1 are called level one counts and are considered the easiest to perform. Slightly greater accuracy, at the cost of increased difficulty and likelihood of making mistakes, involves the use of multi-level counts, which assign point values of –2, +2, or greater to the various cards. This greater range of point values adds to the complication of keeping an accurate tally in one's head.
A final complication in card counting involves the issue of how to treat aces. While playing out hands, Aces are slightly disadvantageous for the player, which implies that they should have a positive point count; but for purposes of getting a blackjack, they are extremely valuable when they remain in the deck. Most counting schemes give aces a negative count, recognizing that there is a compromise involved in this process. Some schemes actually assign a zero value to aces, and require the counter to keep a separate side count of aces.
The most commonly used system by most professionals (both players and surveillance) is Hi-Lo. It assigns -1 to 10's and Aces, +1 to 2 through 6. Higher level counts theoretically generate higher profits, but for most players, decreased playing speed and increased fatigue and error rates argue against their use. K-O, an unbalanced count (7's are also +1) developed by Ken Fuchs and Olaf Vancura (Knock-Out Blackjack), is only modestly less effective than Hi-Lo, but is substantially less error-prone, because its unbalance eliminates the need (in systems such as Hi-Lo) to divide by the approximate number of remaining decks to find the "true count." Many players have difficulty performing rapid, accurate division at the table, or may be prone to errors in estimating the number of remaining decks.
History of blackjack card-counting
The father of card counting is American mathematician Dr. Edward O. Thorp. His 1962 book Beat the Dealer (ISBN 0394703103) outlined various betting and playing strategies for optimal blackjack play. Although mathematically sound, the techniques described no longer apply as casinos took counter-measures (such as no longer dealing to the very last card). Also, the counting system described (10-count) is harder to use and less profitable than the point-count systems that have been developed afterwards. A history of how counting developed can be seen in David Layton's documentary film, "The Hot Shoe."
In the early days of card-counting, it is undoubted that a few players were hugely successful. Ken Uston recounts his early successes—and court battles with the casinos—in his book Ken Uston on Blackjack. In reality, Ken Uston, though perhaps the most famous card counter through his 60 Minutes television appearance and his books, was overall only a small winner. The most financially successful card counters have made their fortunes in other businesses. Ed Thorp, for example, ran a successful fund.
In the 1970s and 1980s, as computing power grew, more advanced (and more difficult) card counting systems came into favor. Many card counters agree, however, that a simpler and less advantageous system can be played flawlessly for hours, thus maximizing return, whereas a more complex system is prone to user error, removing any additional accuracy it might have afforded.
In the 1970s Ken Uston developed a tactic of card counting he termed Team Play. It operates thus: various counters are dispatched to tables around a casino betting the table minimum. Their role is not to raise money, but to determine when the table is advantageous. When an advantage situation occurs the counter surreptitiously signals for the "Big Player." To the casino the BP is a swaggering, irrational, cash-crazy bettor. He or she jumps from table to table placing maximum bets. As the BP's play appears random and irrational, the casinos see another soon-to-be loser. But remember: the BP only places bets when there is an advantage. With this style of play Uston's team cleared over $3,000,000. He fully documented both his counting methods and some outrageous stories in his book "Million Dollar Blackjack"[1]. Ben Mezrich also covers Team Play in his recent book Bringing Down The House (ISBN 0743249992), which describes how MIT students used it with great success. See also the Canadian movie The Last Casino.
There have been several MIT Blackjack Teams, made up of MIT students who team up to use a combination of card counting and group play to attempt to beat the house. The most successful independent team is the one founded by Thomas Hyland in 1979. Dubbed by some as the "King of Card Counting," Hyland personally trained the members to work individually and later in teams to win millions at Atlantic City, Las Vegas, Caribbean and Canadian casinos. When the casinos caught on to them, Hyland developed the "ace locating" technique. This made it more difficult for casinos to detect when the players were card counting. In 1994, members of the team were arrested for card counting at Casino Windsor in Ontario, Canada. However, the judge ruled that the players' conduct was not cheating, but merely the use of strategy as it did not physically alter the game.
Countermeasures against blackjack card-counters
Counting cards in blackjack has become substantially more difficult as a result of casino countermeasures. The most common is the use of more decks, which decreases the player's advantage, but even in the few remaining single- and double-deck games, dealers will often shuffle prematurely or unusually frequently to defeat a suspected card-counter. However, for the casinos there is a downside to frequent shuffling: It reduces the amount of time that the noncounting players are playing and consequently losing money to the house. It has become common for casinos to use automatic shuffling machines to compensate for this. Some models of shuffling machines shuffle one set of cards while another is in play. Others, known as Continuous Shuffle Machines (CSMs) allow the dealer to simply return used cards to a single shoe to allow playing with no interruption. Because CSMs essentially force minimal penetration, they remove almost all possible advantage of traditional counting techniques. As a result, some blackjack players call for a boycott of tables using CSMs. In the case of online casinos, the deck is shuffled at the start of each new round, ensuring the house always has the advantage. However, some online casinos periodically animate the dealer shuffling the cards to give the illusion that the cards are shuffled infrequently.
Unfavorable rules can cut into a player's advantage, such as no double down after splitting, and having the dealer hit a soft 17 (ace, six which can play as 7 or 17.) Starting around 2004 a number of casinos began offering a 6:5 payoff on player blackjacks instead of the more traditional 3:2 payoff. These games are generally single-deck, inviting unwary card-counters and other players who believe they have an advantage. The inferior payoff substantially increases the house edge and makes the game unbeatable, even by a card-counter who is practicing the most sophisticated system perfectly.
A pitboss who determines that a player is a card-counter will either "back off" the player by inviting him/her to play any game other than blackjack, or will ban him/her from the casino itself. The player's name and photo (from surveillance cameras) may also be shared with other casinos and with the Griffin Investigations, whose business is maintaining a database of card-counters and cheaters for the benefit of casino operators, known as the Griffin Book.
Many casual card counters make small mistakes that cost the advantage they gain by counting. Two or three mistakes per hour may give back all of the counter's advantage. Even if one can count perfectly when practicing at home, it is much more difficult in an actual casino. The loud, distracting environments of most casinos, and even the availability of complimentary alcoholic beverages, play roles as casino counter-measures.
Casinos look out for known card counters, who may be banned from play depending on regulatory commission rules. They also look for suspicious actions such as a long series of small bets followed by large one. Monitoring player behavior to assist in this identification falls to on-floor casino personnel ("pit bosses") and central security personnel who may use video surveillance ("the eye in the sky") as well as computer analysis to try to spot playing behavior indicative of card counting; early counter-strategies featured the dealer learning to count the cards themselves to recognise the patterns in the players. In addition, many casinos employ the services of various agencies who claim to have a catalog of advantage players. If a player is found to be in the Griffin Book or Biometrica, he will almost certainly be stopped from play and asked to leave regardless of his table play. For successful card counters, therefore, skill at "cover" behavior to hide counting to avoid "drawing heat" and possibly being barred, may be just as important as playing skill.
Casinos may alter the game's dynamic against card counters by raising the minimum or lowering the limit on a table with a suspected counter, or by reshuffling sooner than the normal end of the shoe if they think that the player is offering a large bet on a positive count.
There have been some high-profile lawsuits involving whether the casino is allowed to bar card-counters. Essentially, card-counting, if done in your head and with no outside assistance with devices or additional people, is not illegal, as working figures within one's own mind is not an arrestable offence. Using an outside aid, though, is illegal. However, the casinos despise counters and, if permitted by their jurisdiction, may ban counters from their casinos; in Nevada, where the casinos are ruled to be private places, the only prerequisite to a ban is the full reading of the Trespass Act to ban a player for life. Some skilled counters try to disguise their identities and playing habits; however, some casinos have claimed that facial recognition software can often match a camouflaged face with a banned one. Whether this is true is unknown. Almost all casinos in the United States use Griffin Investigations consulting firm to help them track down and monitor card counters.
Finally, the simplest countermeasure the casinos use in order to thwart card counting is simply to offer an inferior blackjack payoff of 6:5 instead of the standard 3:2. 6:5 blackjack is over eight times worse mathematically for the player than in a typical game with a regular payoff, expert player and novice alike cannot beat the game as a practical matter. The casinos offer this game using a single deck, which attracts players who think this gives them an advantage, when in fact the benefit of a single deck is outweighed several times over by the short blackjack payoff.
Modern technology is also providing some advantage in monitoring for card counters, for example the MindPlay system.