China and weapons of mass destruction
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The People's Republic of China is said to have an arsenal of about 400 nuclear weapons stockpiled as of 1999, although this number is questionable because the Chinese government releases little information regarding nuclear weapons other than stating that China possesses the smallest nuclear arsenal amongst the five nuclear-weapon states. Some sources suggest that China might have as many as 2000 nuclear warheads, but other sources estimate as low as 80. Nuclear tests began in 1964. The Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) was signed in 1996. China denies having either biological or chemical weapons, having acceded to the Biological and Toxin Weapons Convention (BWC) in 1984, and ratified the Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC) in 1996.
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Biological weapons
Biological weapons program
Chinese officials have stated that China has never engaged in biological activities with offensive military applications.
US, UK, and Russian reports question this claim. According to unconfirmed sources, the Chinese may have operated an offensive biological weapons program in the 1980s and these efforts may continue to this day. In its 1998 annual report on arms control compliance, the US Arms Control and Disarmament Agency (ACDA) stated that the United States believes that China had an offensive BW program prior to 1984 when it became a Party to the BWC, and maintained it throughout most of the 1980s.
In addition, The New York Times reported on April 5, 1999 that a senior Soviet defector, Kanatjan Alibekov, former director of one of the Soviet germ-warfare programs, said that China suffered a serious accident at one of its biological weapons plants in the late 1980s. Alibekov asserted that Soviet reconnaissance satellites had found a biological weapons laboratory and plant near a site for testing nuclear warheads. It was then allegedly discovered that two epidemics of hemorrhagic fever swept the region in the late 1980s. Soviet analysts assumed that they were caused by an accident in a lab where Chinese scientists were weaponizing viral diseases.
Biological weapons exports
US Secretary of State Madeleine Albright expressed her concerns over possible Chinese biological weapon transfers to Iran and other nations in a letter to Senator Robert F. Bennett (R-Utah) in January 1997. Albright stated that she had received reports regarding transfers of dual-use items from Chinese entities to the Iranian government which concerned her and that the United States had to encourage China to adopt comprehensive export controls to prevent assistance to Iran's biological weapons program.
The United States acted upon the allegations on January 16, 2002, when it imposed sanctions on three Chinese firms accused of supplying Iran with materials used in the manufacture of chemical and biological weapons.
In response to this, China issued export control protocols on dual use biological technology in late 2002.
Chemical weapons
China signed the CWC (Chemical Weapons Convention) in January 13, 1993. The CWC was ratified April 25, 1997. (1)Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons, "Signatory States to the Chemical Weapons Convention," http://www.opcw.nl/memsta/namelist.htm.
Nuclear weapons
China is one of the five "Nuclear Weapons States" (NWS) under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, which China ratified in 1992. China is the only NWS to give an unqualified security assurance to non-nuclear-weapon states:
- "China undertakes not to use or threaten to use nuclear weapons against non-nuclear-weapon States or nuclear-weapon-free zones at any time or under any circumstances." [1]
Because of strict secrecy it is very difficult to determine the exact size and composition of China's nuclear forces. Two declassified U.S. government reports give historical estimates. The 1984 Defense Intelligence Agency "Defense Estimative Brief" estimates the Chinese nuclear stockpile as consisting of between 150 and 160 warheads [2]. A 1993 National Security Council report estimated that China's nuclear deterrent force relied on 60 to 70 nuclear armed ballistic missiles [3]. In 2004 the U.S. Department of Defense assessed that China had about 20 ICBMs capable of targeting the United States [4].
China's first test of a nuclear device took place on October 16, 1964, at the Lop Nur test site. China's last nuclear test was on July 29, 1996. According to the Australian Geological Survey Organization in Canberra the yield of the 1996 test was 1 to 5 kilotons. This was China's 22nd underground test and 45th test overall.
China has made significant improvements in its miniaturization techniques since the 1980s. There have been accusations, notably by the Cox Commission, that this was done primarily by covertly acquiring the US W-70 warhead design as well as ballistic missile guidance. Chinese scientists have stated that they have made advances in these areas, but insist that these advances were made indigenously without copying American designs.
Although the total number of nuclear weapons in the Chinese arsenal is unknown, as of 2005 the various estimates vary from as low as 80 to as high as 2000. In 2004 China stated "Among the nuclear-weapon states, China ... possesses the smallest nuclear arsenal", implying China has fewer than the 200 nuclear weapons the United Kingdom has [5]. Most sources say that China has around 400-430 nuclear warheads. Some authors argue that U.S. intelligence estimates suggest a much smaller nuclear force than many non-governmental organizations. [6]
The following is an estimate of China’s nuclear forces.
Land-based Intercontinental Ballistic and Cruise Missiles (ICBMs)
Although unconfirmed, most Western analysts believe China has deployed 24~36 DF-5 single-warhead, three-stage, liquid-fueled ICBMs since the 1980s (range of 12,000-15,000 KM). China is developing the DF-31, a modern solid-fuel ICBM (range of 8,000 km - 10,000 km) with a MIRV capability, which the U.S. Department of Defense assessed in 2004 would be deployed later this decade [7].
Sea-based weapons
The People's Liberation Army Navy's SLBM inventory is relatively new. China launched its first 2nd-generation nuclear armed submarine in April 1981. The Chinese navy currently has 1 Type 092 Xia class SSBN at roughly 8,000 tons displacement. A second Type 092 was reportedly lost in an accident in 1985. The Type 092 is equipped with 12 JL-1 SLBMs with a range of 2150-2500 km. The JL-1 is a modified DF-21 missile.
The Chinese navy is developing the Type 094 class SSBN, it is reported at least 1 of these have been completed. This submarine will be capable of carrying 16 of the longer ranged, more modern JL-2s with a range of approximately 8000 km.
Heavy bomber group
China's bomber force is mostly comprised of Chinese-made versions of Soviet aircraft. The People's Liberation Army Air Force currently has 20 H-5s (a variant of the Ilyushin Il-28) and 120 H-6s (a variant of the Tupolev Tu-16). All these obsolete bombers are outfitted to carry nuclear as well as conventional weapons. The Chinese has also produced the Xian JH-7 Flying Leopard fighter-bomber (currently about 20 are in service) capable of delivering a nuclear strike. China has also bought the more advanced Sukhoi Su-30 from Russia, currently, about 100 Su-30s (MKK and MK2 variants) have been purchased by China. The Su-30 is capable of carrying tactical nuclear weapons.
See also
External links
- Fact Sheet: China: Nuclear Disarmament and Reduction, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, People's Republic of China, 2004/04/27
- FY04 Report to Congress on PRC Military Power, U.S. Department of Defense
- Status of Nuclear Powers and Their Nuclear Capabilities, Federation of American Scientists
- Nuclear Threat Initiative on China
- PLA Strategic Missile Force - Chinese Defence Today
- Jeffrey Lewis, "The ambiguous arsenal", Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, May/June 2005.
- Nuclear Notebook: Chinese nuclear forces, 2003, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, Nov/Dec 2003.
- Defense Estimative Brief, Nuclear Weapons Systems in China, Defense Intelligence Agency, 24 April 1984
- Report to Congress on Status of China, India and Pakistan Nuclear and Ballistic Missile Programs, National Security Council, July 28, 1993
- Nuclear Files.org Information on the background of nuclear weapons in China
- Nuclear Files.org Current information on nuclear stockpiles in China
- International Relations and Security Network - China and the Warsaw Pact, Account of Soviet-China nuclear technology transfer, October 2002