Moneyball: The Art of Winning an Unfair Game

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Moneyball: The Art of Winning an Unfair Game (ISBN 0393057658) is a book by Michael M. Lewis released in 2003 about the general manager of the Major League Baseball team Oakland Athletics, Billy Beane, and his team's approach to running the organization. The central premise of Moneyball is that the collected wisdom of baseball insiders (including players, managers, coaches, scouts, and the front office) over the past century is subjective and often flawed. Statistics like 60 yard dash times, RBIs, and batting average that are typically used to gauge players are relics of a 19th-century view of the game and the statistics that were available at the time.

Since then, real statistical analysis has shown that on base percentage and slugging percentage are better indicators of offensive success and that avoiding an out is more important than getting a hit. Every on-field play can be evaluated in terms of expected runs contributed. For example, a strike on the first pitch of an at-bat may be worth -.05 runs. This flies in the face of conventional baseball wisdom, and the beliefs of many of the men who are paid large sums to evaluate talent.

By re-evaluating the strategies that produce wins on the field, the Athletics, with approximately $55 million in salary, are competitive with the New York Yankees who spend over $205 million (in 2005/2006) annually on their players. Oakland is forced to find players undervalued by the market, and their system for finding value has proved itself so far.

Several Lewis themes are present: insiders vs. outsiders (established traditionalists vs. upstart proponents of Sabermetrics), the democratization of information causing a flattening of hierarchies, and the ruthless drive for efficiency that capitalism demands.

In addition, Moneyball traces the history of the sabermetric movement back to such luminaries as Bill James (now a member of the Boston Red Sox front office) and Craig Wright. Lewis explores how James' seminal Baseball Abstract, an annual publication that was published from the late-1970s through the late-1980s, influenced many of the young, up-and-coming baseball minds that are now joining the ranks of baseball management.

Moneyball has made such an impact in professional baseball that the term itself has entered the lexicon of baseball. Teams which appear to value the concepts of sabermetrics over traditional tactics are often said to be playing "Moneyball." Baseball traditionalists, in particular some scouts and media members, decry the sabermetric revolution and have disparaged Moneyball for going against traditional thinking in statistics analysis and emphasizing concepts of sabermetrics. Nevertheless, the impact of Moneyball upon major league front offices is undeniable. In its wake, teams such as the New York Mets, New York Yankees, San Diego Padres, St. Louis Cardinals, Arizona Diamondbacks and the Toronto Blue Jays have hired full-time statistical analysts.

Moneyball has also elicited some criticism from even the sabermetric community. Lewis has been criticized for oversimplifying and exaggerating certain aspects of sabermetric thought. Moreover, his description of Oakland's 2001 amateur draft as an expensive disaster, while celebrating Oakland's 2002 amateur draft (sometimes called the 'Moneyball' draft) has drawn some criticism. The 2001 draft, which includes the Detroit Tigers' Jeremy Bonderman, the Athletics' Bobby Crosby and Dan Johnson, the Kansas City Royals' Mike Wood, and the Chicago White Sox's Neal Cotts, is thought by some to have been a stronger draft than the Moneyball draft, which has only sent the Athletics' Nick Swisher and Joe Blanton, as well as the Royals' Mark Teahen to the major leagues thus far, despite Oakland having seven first round draft choices in the 2002 draft, against just three in the 2001 draft.