Olduvai theory
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The Olduvai theory was first introduced by Richard C. Duncan, Ph.D. in 1989. He presented it in his paper, "The Peak of World Oil Production and the Road to the Olduvai Gorge", at the Summit 2000 Pardee Keynote Symposia of the Geological Society of America, on November 13, 2000. The name is a reference to the Olduvai Gorge. The Olduvai theory provides a modern argument supporting the Malthusian catastrophe.
The Olduvai theory states that the industrial civilization (using a special definition - see below) will have a lifetime of less than or equal to 100 years.
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Olduvai Gorge
From the paper, about the Olduvai Gorge:
...(1) it is justly famous, (2) I've been there, (3) its long hollow sound is eerie and ominous, and (4) it is a good metaphor for the 'Stone Age way of life'.
A paper "The Olduvai Theory: Energy, Population, and Industrial Civilization" is published in The Social Contract, Vol. XVI, No. 2, Winter 2005-2006, pp. 134-144. A copy is available free at www.thesocialcontract.com/pdf/sixteen-two/xvi-2-93.pdf.
Details of theory
This section is based on the paper "The Peak of World Oil Production and the Road to the Olduvai Gorge".
Industrial Civilization
The Industrial Civilization is defined in this paper as the time from when energy production per capita rises above 30% of its peak to when it falls below 30% of its peak. The 30% point is 3.32 boe/c/yr (barrels of oil equivalent per capita per year). The peak is 11.15 boe/c/yr and occurred in 1979.
Decline
The part of the decline from 1979 to 1999 is called the Olduvai slope. The rest is predicted to occur in two stages:
- the Olduvai slide (2000–2011) - 'may resemble the "Great Depression" of 1929 to 1939: unemployment, breadlines, and homelessness'
- the Olduvai cliff (2012–2030) - 'I know of no precedent in human history.'
In terms of energy, world oil production per capita also peaked in 1979 and his since fallen faster than world energy production per capita. The paper does not discuss how this shortfall is met.
Total world oil production is predicted to peak in 2006.
Future civilizations
The paper contains a quote that Sir Fred Hoyle made in 1964, stating that if the industrial civilization does collapse, with the coal, oil and "high-grade" metallic ores gone, no species from Earth will ever reach the same level of technology as we now enjoy.
See also
- Future energy development
- Great Depression
- The Hubbert peak theory, also known as "peak oil," an influential theory concerning the long-term rate of conventional oil production and depletion.
- Societal collapse
- White's law
Reference
"The Peak Of World Oil Production And The Road To The Olduvai Gorge" by Richard C. Duncan (2000)
Two of the references for the paper are other websites. The one that does not work is as follows:
- Duncan, RC (2000a). The Heuristic Oil Forecasting Method: User's Guide & Forecast #4. www.halcyon.com/duncanrc/ (Forecast #4). 30 p.
This site is no longer accessible. Some versions of this site, however, are available in the Internet Archive at http://web.archive.org/web/*/http%3A//www.halcyon.com/duncanrc/.
External links
- The Olduvai Theory of Industrial Civilization (less complete than the paper referenced above but updated more recently)
- "The Post-Petroleum Paradigm—and Population" by Walter Youngquist (1999)
- "Forecast of Oil and Gas Supply to 2050" by Jean Laherrere (2003) (PDF file)es:Teoría de Olduvai