Unintended consequence

From Free net encyclopedia

Template:For

Unintended consequences, or situations where the final outcome is unexpected, can be classed into roughly three groups:

  • positive, usually referred to as serendipity or a windfall
  • a source of problems, according to Murphy's Law
  • definitively negative or a perverse effect, which is the opposite result to the one intended

The Law of Unintended Consequences holds that almost all human actions have at least one unintended consequence. In other words, each cause has more than one effect, including unforeseen effects. The idea dates to the Scottish Enlightenment, which influenced people such as Thomas Jefferson. In the twentieth century, sociologist Robert K. Merton once again popularized the concept, sometimes referred to as the Law of Unforeseen Consequences.

Contents

[edit]

Causes

Possible causes of unintended consequences include the world's inherent complexity (parts of a system responding to changes in the environment), perverse incentives, human stupidity, self-deception or other cognitive or emotional biases.

Robert K. Merton listed five causes of unanticipated consequences:

  1. Ignorance (It is impossible to anticipate everything)
  2. Error (Incomplete analysis of the problem, or following habits that worked in the past but may not apply to the current situation)
  3. Immediate interest which may override long-term interests
  4. Basic values may require or prohibit certain actions, even if the long-term result might be unfavorable (these long-term consequences may eventually cause changes in basic values)
  5. Self-defeating prophecy (Fear of some consequence drives people to find solutions before the problem occurs, thus the non-occurrence of the problem is unanticipated)

Merton also stated that "no blanket statement categorically affirming or denying the practical feasibility of all social planning is warranted."

[edit]

Examples

Of course, unintended consequences are common in everybody's life, but some can impact the greater society. Here are some examples:

  • In medicine, most drugs have unintended consequences associated with their use, which are known as "side effects," or more precisely, "adverse effects". As with other unintended consequences, these side effects are often negative, but some are beneficial—for instance, aspirin, a pain reliever, can also thin the blood and help to prevent heart attacks. (The existence of beneficial side effects also leads to off label use—prescription or use of a drug for a non-intended purpose.)
  • The introduction of rabbits into Australia for sport led to an explosive growth in the rabbit population; rabbits became a major feral pest in Australia.
  • "Prohibition" in the 1920s U.S., originally intended to suppress the alcohol trade, drove many small-time alcohol suppliers out of business and consolidated the hold of large-scale organized crime over the illegal alcohol industry. Sixty years later, the "War on Drugs," intended to suppress the illegal drug trade, has likewise driven many small-time drug dealers out of business and consolidated the hold of organized drug cartels over the illegal drug industry. Additionally, it has led to the existence of street drugs of unknown strength and contamination; at least some drug-related (and particularly opiate-related) deaths are caused by accidental overdosing on drugs which a dealer neglected to dilute to the usual extent.
  • The medieval policy of setting up large hunting reserves for the nobility has preserved green space, often as parks, throughout England and other places in Europe.
  • The wartime practice of sinking ships in shallow waters has created some artificial coral reefs.
  • Numerous attempts by governments to reduce rent by introducing rent controls has led to the unintended consequence of property shortages and reduction in quality housing, or even to the creation of slums—areas where rental property is not properly maintained.
  • Controversial research carried out by John J. Donohue and Steven Levitt and published in the Quarterly Journal of Economics suggests that legalized abortion in the United States has accounted for as much as 50% of the drop in national crime rates. As evidence, Donohue and Levitt cite the fact that states which legalized abortion before Roe v. Wade saw correspondingly earlier drops in crime, and that states where abortion is common saw greater drops in crime than states where abortion is rare. Most convincingly, they found that "in high abortion states, only arrests of those born after abortion legalization fall relative to low abortion states." Also controversially, it has been suggested that legalized abortion has led to fewer so-called 'crack babies'—children born with a drug dependency due to their mothers' drug use while pregnant. The availability of abortion means that a drug-addicted mother has the option to abort a fetus that her drug use is likely to render unhealthy (even if this consequence is not a primary reason for her choice to abort).
    • Note: the theory that fetuses exposed to crack cocaine would become inferior human beings, prone to violence, crime or addiction, has since been refuted by the facts. Crack babies perform as well as their age cohorts and show no additional tendency to violence, crime or addiction. Babies with fetal alcohol syndrome, exposed to alcohol during the first trimester of life, do show significant mental delay, tendency to violence and crime, and a tendency toward drug and alcohol abuse. Ironies abound. Not only do unforeseen consequences occur regularly, the consequences that seem most reasonable and likely to occur often fail to materialize.
[edit]

See also

[edit]

References

fr:effet pervers

Retrieved from "http://www.netipedia.com/index.php/Unintended_consequence"